Canadian Real Estate Association predicting housing slowdown in 2019
The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of Canadian Home sales have declined by more than 10 percent in 2018, and it isn’t expecting much, if any improvement in 2019.
Despite strong population and job growth in 2018, home sales fell to their lowest level in the past five years. The CREA says rising interest rates and tougher mortgage rules are going to keep house sales slower-than-usual for 2019 and the foreseeable future.
The CREA says home sales in Saskatchewan in 2018 were their lowest in quite a few years, and it forecasting an even further drop in sales and house prices in Saskatchewan in 2019. It is forecasting a price drop of about 2.5 percent for Saskatchewan for 2019.
The CREA’s national forecast has been revised lower since its September forecast as an anticipated rebound in sales in British Columbia has so far failed to materialize, the recovery in Ontario sales this summer has now run its course and sales activity in Alberta has edged lower. National sales are now projected to decline by 11.2% to 458,200 units in 2018.
The national average price is projected to ease to $488,600 this year, down 4.2% from 2017.
Home prices are projected to edge down by about 2.5% in Alberta and Saskatchewan and by about 2% in Newfoundland & Labrador. In these provinces, particularly in the latter two, the supply of homes available for sale is elevated relative to sales activity. The imbalance between the two has deteriorated over the past year.
National sales are forecast to remain little changed in 2019 (456,200 units; -0.5%), as rising interest rates combined with the mortgage stress-test offsets continuing population, job and income growth. This forecast would mark a nine-year low for Canadian MLS® Systems home sales.